Nigeria is importing far less petrol than it did a month ago — but the country is still not producing enough fuel locally to meet its needs.
Fresh reports from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority and sighted by ENigeria Newspaper show that daily petrol imports fell by 42.2 per cent in January 2026 to 24.8 million litres, down from 42.8 million litres recorded in December 2025. The sharp drop reflects a gradual shift toward local refining, yet nearly 25 million litres of imported fuel per day means Nigeria continues to rely heavily on foreign supply.
The reduction in imports coincided with a surge in output from the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which increased domestic supply to 40.1 million litres per day in January, up from 32 million litres the previous month. The refinery operated at 61.27 per cent of capacity during the period, underscoring its growing influence in the market.
Still, overall petrol availability declined. Total daily supply fell to 64.9 million litres in January, compared to 74.2 million litres in December — a 12.5 per cent decrease. Despite the lower aggregate figure, the regulator reported that the country maintained 33 days of sufficiency stock, with stock coverage improving by 13 per cent between December and January due to stronger supply performance.
Consumption patterns further illustrate the supply challenge. While the official benchmark for daily petrol use remains 50 million litres, actual truck-out volumes averaged 60.2 million litres per day in January. In addition, daily truck-out volumes reached 19.2 million litres for diesel, 3.5 million litres for aviation fuel and 4,860 metric tonnes of LPG.
A key gap in domestic production persists: the three state-owned refineries under NNPC Limited were inactive throughout the month, leaving private facilities to carry the burden of refining.
In the modular refining segment, however, there are signs of expansion. Wintersmith Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited has commenced crude oil test runs for the second phase of its Imo State refinery. The regulator confirmed that “introduction of hydrocarbon commenced,” indicating that the facility has moved into live operational testing after pre-commissioning activities.
Wintersmith currently refines 5,000 barrels per day, producing diesel, Dual Purpose Kerosene, naphtha and heavy fuel oil. Once its Phase Two upgrade is completed, capacity is expected to jump to about 50,000 barrels per day — a tenfold increase that could meaningfully boost domestic output.
Industry observers say developments in both large-scale and modular refining are critical to reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imports, easing pressure on foreign exchange and strengthening energy security. Ongoing reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act have liberalised the downstream market, with pricing increasingly guided by market forces rather than state controls.
The Authority’s Chief Executive, Engr. Saidu Mohammed, described the sector as undergoing an “irreversible renaissance,” attributing progress to regulatory clarity and investment momentum. He pointed to reduced import-related fiscal losses estimated at over N6 trillion and emphasised that regulation must “enable value, not inhibit it,” adding that “confidence is the true currency of any market.”
The direction of travel is clear: imports are falling and local refining is rising. Yet until domestic production consistently matches consumption, and government-owned refineries return to operation, Nigeria’s quest for full fuel self-sufficiency remains unfinished.
