Nigeria forfeited an estimated N1.76 trillion in potential crude oil earnings after failing to meet its production quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for most of 2025 and the first month of 2026.
Production data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and made available to ENigeria Newspaper show that crude output stayed below the 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) benchmark in nine months of 2025 and again in January 2026, despite relatively firm global oil prices during the period.
Between January 2025 and January 2026, Nigeria accumulated a net production shortfall of 18.12 million barrels after adjusting for modest surpluses recorded in three months. Using an average crude price of $72.08 per barrel — based on figures for Bonny Light published by the Central Bank of Nigeria — the deficit translates to about $1.31 billion. Converted at an exchange rate of N1,353 to the dollar, the estimated revenue gap stands at roughly N1.76 trillion.
The country exceeded its OPEC allocation only in January, June and July 2025. January output reached 1.54 mbpd, about 40,000 barrels above quota. June and July also posted slight overages of between 10,000 and 30,000 barrels per day.
However, production slipped below target in February (1.47 mbpd), March (1.40 mbpd), April (1.49 mbpd), May (1.45 mbpd), August (1.43 mbpd), September (1.39 mbpd), October (1.40 mbpd), November (1.43 mbpd) and December (1.42 mbpd). The largest gap occurred in September, when output lagged the benchmark by roughly 110,000 barrels per day.
Monthly data illustrate the scale of the losses. In March alone, Nigeria produced 43.4 million barrels instead of the expected 46.5 million, creating a deficit of 3.1 million barrels. September recorded a 3.3 million-barrel shortfall, while April and October each missed target by over 1.8 million barrels. Cumulatively, the nine underperforming months in 2025 accounted for a gross shortfall of about 18.7 million barrels before surplus adjustments.
January 2026 continued the trend. Average production stood at 1.459 mbpd — 41,000 barrels below quota daily — resulting in an additional shortfall of approximately 1.27 million barrels.
Price movements during the period were mixed. Bonny Light traded at $80.76 per barrel in January 2025 before easing to $65.90 by May amid softer global conditions. Prices later rebounded to above $73 in June and July, averaging $72.08 across the 10 months for which data were available, before dipping again to $66.15 in October.
Despite the quota underperformance, Nigeria’s total crude production for 2025 reached 530.41 million barrels, generating an estimated N55.5 trillion in gross revenue at the same average price and exchange rate.
Recall that ENigeria Newspaper analysts note that the N1.76 trillion loss reflects gross potential earnings and excludes production costs, joint venture obligations, cost recoveries under production-sharing contracts, domestic supply commitments and crude theft.
Industry observers attribute the repeated shortfalls to structural bottlenecks, including operational disruptions, ageing infrastructure, security challenges in the Niger Delta and inconsistent field performance.
