Deadly terrorists attacks in the borderlands linking Nigeria, Benin and Niger escalated sharply in 2025, with conflict-related fatalities rising by 262 per cent compared to the previous year, a fresh analysis by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), as obtained by ENigeria Newspaper.
The assessment links the surge to intensified operations by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), both of which have broadened their reach across the fragile tri-border corridor.
ACLED’s findings show that violence spiked significantly in parts of Benin and Niger, as well as Nigeria’s Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger and Kwara states, where recorded incidents climbed by 86 per cent within the review period.
Héni Nsaibia, ACLED’s senior West Africa analyst, said the security threat in the region has shifted in scale and complexity. According to him, extremist factions are no longer operating quietly but are expanding their operational footprint and visibility.
“The threats have taken on new dimensions as these groups continue to expand their footprint,” he noted.
The report highlights a change in strategy by both JNIM and ISSP, pointing to their increasingly open claims of responsibility for attacks. Between June and November 2025, JNIM publicly acknowledged assaults in Basso, Wara, Nuku and Karunji along the Benin–Nigeria axis. ACLED described these announcements as some of the group’s earliest confirmed admissions of activity inside Nigeria, signalling an overt declaration of presence in territory where its involvement had previously been suspected but not openly stated.
ISSP followed a similar path, formally claiming attacks in Goubey and Birni N’Konni along the Niger–Nigeria border in December and February. Before these declarations, much of the violence there had been blamed on the Lakurawa armed faction.
ENigeria Newspaper also gathered that ACLED attributes the deteriorating security situation partly to weak governance structures and fragile regional coordination. It noted that limited state authority and porous borders persist, especially after several Sahel countries exited the Economic Community of West African States, a move that strained cooperation and reduced cross-border collaboration.
The report also draws attention to recent United States counter-terrorism involvement. In December, US forces carried out targeted strikes on two Islamic State enclaves in Sokoto State, acting with the consent of the Nigerian government.
According to ACLED, striking ISSP positions within Nigeria outside its traditional Sahelian bases reflects Washington’s effort to prevent the group’s expansion toward coastal West Africa while maintaining strategic influence in the region.
The analysis suggests that a possible catalyst for the operation was ISSP’s October abduction of American missionary and pilot Kevin Rideout in Niger’s capital, Niamey.
Beyond that incident, ACLED notes that expanding military ties between Nigeria and the United States may offer a workable platform for confronting extremist groups, particularly as Western forces have been forced to scale back their presence in several Sahel countries central to the insurgency.
